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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
29/0111Z from Region 3654 (S07W50). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May,
02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 507 km/s at 28/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
28/2303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
29/1015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (01 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 138 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 135/130/120 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 008/008-014/018-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |