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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1926Z from Region 3632 (N26E16). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Apr) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 464 km/s at 06/2227Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
06/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/0152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 424 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Apr) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 125 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 125/128/125 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 006/005-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |