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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
08/0314Z from Region 3634 (N27E54). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and expected to be low with a
chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 08/2000Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/0235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 125 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 128/126/140 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 010/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |