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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/2152Z from Region 3638 (S18W35). There are currently 17 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 22/0457Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 492 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three
(25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 227 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 225/210/190 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 011/015-010/010-017/021
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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