Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 May 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
19/1756Z from Region 3685 (S13E29). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (20 May,
21 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 19/1148Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 19/1417Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
19/1254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 406 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 May), unsettled to
active levels on day two (21 May) and quiet levels on day three (22
May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 201 Predicted 20 May-22 May 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 19 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 016/024-014/016-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |