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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
12/1626Z from Region 3664 (S19W75). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high on
days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1005 km/s at 12/0055Z. Total
IMF reached 15 nT at 11/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -7 nT at 11/2158Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 71 pfu at 11/2100Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross
threshold on days one and two (13 May, 14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| Class M | 95% | 95% | 15% |
| Class X | 75% | 75% | 05% |
| Proton | 60% | 60% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 May 222 Predicted 13 May-15 May 220/215/200 90 Day Mean 12 May 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May 175/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May 032/063 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 023/040-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 90% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |