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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 08/0149Z from Region 3697 (S17W72). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Jun, 10 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (11 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 545 km/s at 08/1946Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 08/0535Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/0038Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1028 pfu at 08/0800Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 08/0625Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jun), quiet to major storm levels on day two (10 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (11 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (09 Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (10 Jun) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (11 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
Class M75%75%50%
Class X25%25%10%
Proton99%50%10%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jun 190
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun 190/175/175
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 173

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  020/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  015/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  009/010-020/035-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%40%
Minor storm05%40%25%
Major-severe storm01%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%10%
Minor storm30%15%25%
Major-severe storm30%80%60%

All times in UTC

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