Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 May 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 May 21 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 May 2024	200	007
22 May 2024	198	007
23 May 2024	196	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. Flaring activity has been low, only C-class flares were observed in the last 24 hours. The strongest one was a C4.8 flare from NOAA AR 3683 (beta magnetic field configuration). NOAA AR 3685 has beta-gamma magnetic field configuration and has evolved in size and complexity. More C-class flares will occur and M-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours. After further analysis, the CME from 20 May is not expected to affect the Earth.

Solar wind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 380 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 6 nT. There are low chances of a glancing blow from the CME on 17 May, otherwise slow wind conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). If we see a glancing blow from the 17 May CME (low chances), disturbed conditions may occur, otherwise quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours, it is expected to remain so.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 166, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 20 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	179
10cm solar flux	200
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	144 - Based on 33 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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