Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 May 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 May 22 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
22 May 2024	191	007
23 May 2024	185	007
24 May 2024	181	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are nine visible ARs on the solar disk. There were three M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) and 3683 (beta magnetic field configuration. The strongest one was an M2.3 peaking at 04:04 UTC from NOAA AR 3683. NOAA AR 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) has grown in size and has also potential for strong flares. More M-class flares can be expected, and X-class flares are possible, in the next 24 hours.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes

A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth on 24 May.

Solar wind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 360 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 6 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 162, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 21 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	177
10cm solar flux	191
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	167 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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