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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
22/0404Z from Region 3683 (S23W95). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 428 km/s at 22/0319Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
22/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
22/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 267 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 May, 25
May) and unsettled to active levels on day two (24 May). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (23 May, 24 May)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 196 Predicted 23 May-25 May 194/190/188 90 Day Mean 22 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 008/008-011/014-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |