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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 23/0216Z from Region 3679 (S09W73). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 23/0307Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/1940Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 489 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 May, 26 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (24 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (25 May, 26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M60%60%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 176
  Predicted   24 May-26 May 175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        23 May 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  013/015-012/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%35%40%

All times in UTC

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