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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/0706Z from Region 3679 (S08W86). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 May, 26 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 24/0940Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/2348Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 225 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May), quiet to active levels on day two (26 May) and quiet levels on day three (27 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (25 May, 26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M60%60%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 163
  Predicted   25 May-27 May 160/150/150
  90 Day Mean        24 May 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  012/012-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%40%20%

All times in UTC

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