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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/1235Z from Region 3654 (S08W23). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 27/1001Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 27/0612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/2141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Apr 153
  Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        27 Apr 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  012/015-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%30%25%

All times in UTC

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