Viewing archive of Friday, 26 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
26/0636Z from Region 3639 (N30W90). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (27 Apr) and likely
to be moderate on day two (28 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 26/0116Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 26/1515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 26/1253Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 825 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (28 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(29 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (27 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 55% | 35% |
| Class X | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 153 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 145/135/130 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 015/018-013/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |