Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 May 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 May 23 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
23 May 2024	196	007
24 May 2024	194	011
25 May 2024	192	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are six visible ARs on the solar disk. There were four M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (that evolved into beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration). The strongest one was an M4.2 peaking at 02:16 UTC. NOAA AR 3683 rotated over the west limb, but is still producing significant flares (C9.8 at 07:01 UTC). NOAA AR 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) has also potential for strong flaring activity. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flares can be expected and X-class flares are possible.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed CME has been observed in the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes

A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth (late) on 24 May.

Solar wind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet in the last 24 hours (Kp and K_BEL up to 2). Similar quiet conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 135, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 22 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	188
10cm solar flux	196
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	151 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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