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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/0713Z from Region 3691 (N27W06). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01
Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 365 km/s at 30/0003Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 29/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/1427Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 337 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (31 May, 01
Jun) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jun). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 175 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 30 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 014/025-018/025-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 75% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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