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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0452Z from Region 3712 (S25W95). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 364 km/s at 23/2117Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/1943Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27
Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 199 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |