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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/1245Z from Region 3723 (S19E44). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 357 km/s at 25/1434Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 25/1413Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
Class M55%55%55%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jun 194
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 200/200/200
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 177

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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