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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 22/0404Z from Region 3762 (S13E37). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 22/1853Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 22/1751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Jul), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul, 25 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 185
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 185/185/185
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 186

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  009/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  009/010-020/030-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%35%10%
Major-severe storm01%20%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%05%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm35%75%40%

All times in UTC

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