Viewing archive of Monday, 22 July 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Jul 22 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Jul 2024	205	010
23 Jul 2024	204	011
24 Jul 2024	200	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at high level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and six M-class flares. The strongest flare was GOES M3.9 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3762 which peaked at 04:04 UTC on Jul 22. During the flare, the source region (AR 3762) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Apart from NOAA AR 3762, NOAA AR 3757 (beta configuration) and NOAA AR 3744(beta configuration) also produced M-class flares. The NOAA AR 3751 has the most complex magnetic configuration (beta-gamma-delta), but it has only produced few C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours possibly with few M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view around 16:28 UTC on Jul 21. CME was associated with a M1.0 flare from NOAA AR 3757 (N15 E20) and an eruption of a very twisted filament with the main propagation direction towards North. The first estimation shows projected speed of the CME to be about 730 km/s which brings expected arrival time at Earth to be around 05:00 UTC on Jul 24. A M1.4 flare occurred with a peak time 09:35 UTC on Jul 22, produced by NOAA AR 3744. Associated Type II radio emissions were detected at 09:26 UTC on Jul 22, during the flaring activity. The associated CME will possibly have Earth directed components. Further analysis will be carried out once the corresponding LASCO coronagraph images are availble. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hour.

Solar wind

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 280 km/s and 330 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed a small enhancement starting around 09:30 UTC on Jul 22, associated with flaring activities from NOAA AR 3744 and a type II radio burst (with a possibly associated coronal mass ejection). Any major eruption from the same active region, during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at low level and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 188, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	198
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	218 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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