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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
23/1428Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 23/2003Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 23/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2154Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 24 pfu at 23/1040Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26
Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (24 Jul) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (25
Jul, 26 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 176 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 180/182/180 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 019/024-011/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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