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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
18/0204Z from Region 3784 (N16W60). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 18/0109Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 18/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 18/0839Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 231 Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 225/225/215 90 Day Mean 18 Aug 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 024/047 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 011/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |