Viewing archive of Friday, 28 June 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
27/2347Z from Region 3730 (S18E09). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun,
01 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 28/1516Z. Total
IMF reached 30 nT at 28/1045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -24 nT at 28/1035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (30 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (01 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 181 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 011/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 035/061 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 016/020-008/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun to 01 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |