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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/1537Z from Region 3751 (S08W84). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 25/1445Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 25/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 25/2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jul 167
  Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        25 Jul 186

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jul  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  011/012-014/018-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm10%25%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm40%65%25%

All times in UTC

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