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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/1537Z from Region 3751 (S08W84). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 25/1445Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 25/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
25/2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (28 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 167 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 011/012-014/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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