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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0618Z from Region 3734 (N08E59). There are currently 15 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul,
03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 30/2015Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 29/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/0046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02
Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 174 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 011/015-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |