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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/0618Z from Region 3734 (N08E59). There are currently 15 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 30/2015Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/0046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 174
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 179

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  011/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  011/015-010/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%45%45%

All times in UTC

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