Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
27/0237Z from Region 3766 (S07E19). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 26/2104Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 27/1330Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
27/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 179 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (29 Jul) and quiet to major storm levels on day
three (30 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jul 204 Predicted 28 Jul-30 Jul 180/180/190 90 Day Mean 27 Jul 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul 023/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 007/008-013/018-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul to 30 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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