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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
23/2012Z from Region 3800 (S28E17). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 23/0110Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/0355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
23/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 242 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 245/250/260 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 206
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2025/04/30 | M2.03 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/05/02 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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