Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
28/0157Z from Region 3766 (S07E04). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and three (29 Jul,
31 Jul) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day two (30 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 27/2219Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 28/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1954Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Jul), minor storm to
severe storm levels on day two (30 Jul) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (31 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul, 31 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 75% | 70% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 214 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 210/210/200 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 013/018-042/072-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 35% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 79% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/23 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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