Viewing archive of Monday, 29 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/0237Z from Region 3766 (S07W11). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31
Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 28/2237Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
29/1522Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/0747Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (30 Jul) and
unsettled to major storm levels on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 223 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 042/072-024/035-021/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 80% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |