Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
09/0822Z from Region 3738 (S10E15). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul,
12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 402 km/s at 08/2105Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/1053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 205 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 180 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 006/005-009/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |