Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/0559Z from Region 3738 (S10E01). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 10/0832Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(13 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 214 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 215/215/215 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 009/012-008/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |