Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0417Z from Region 3745 (S17E44). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 397 km/s at 11/1737Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
11/1809Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/2213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12
Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 205 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 205/205/210 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 008/008-010/015-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 65% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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