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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
03/1839Z from Region 3775 (N17E18). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05
Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 02/2122Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/2033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (06
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 245
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 245/240/230
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 018/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 018/025-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug to 06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
Major-severe storm | 70% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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