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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 04/1515Z from Region 3780 (S10E71). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 03/2135Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 04/1251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 04/1249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Aug 241
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 240/240/240
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 194

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  029/047
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  013/015-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%25%15%

All times in UTC

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