Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
10/0237Z from Region 3780 (S10W09). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12
Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 516 km/s at 10/1046Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
10/1225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/1659Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (11 Aug), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (13 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 291 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 290/280/270 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 199
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 018/025-025/038-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 162 +13.2 |