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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 09/1206Z from Region 3780 (S12E03). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 09/1752Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0342Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to major storm levels on day two (11 Aug) and active to major storm levels on day three (12 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Aug 306
  Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 300/290/280
  90 Day Mean        09 Aug 198

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  011/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Aug  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  029/042-023/030-028/043

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm35%35%45%
Major-severe storm20%20%25%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm65%65%80%

All times in UTC

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