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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/1206Z from Region 3780 (S12E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11
Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 09/1752Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/0342Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/0105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (10 Aug), quiet to
major storm levels on day two (11 Aug) and active to major storm levels
on day three (12 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 306 Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 300/290/280 90 Day Mean 09 Aug 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 011/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 029/042-023/030-028/043
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 45% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 151.6 -63.9 |
| Last 30 days | 159.7 -53.2 |