Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0856Z from Region 3807 (S15W86). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 426 km/s at 05/0546Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
04/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/0825Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 05/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 257 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Sep, 08
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (07 Sep). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 241 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 235/225/225 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 213
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 016/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/010-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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