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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X7 event observed at
01/2220Z from Region 3842 (S15E18). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04
Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 01/2141Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/0444Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 257 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct), active to
severe storm levels on day two (04 Oct) and active to major storm levels
on day three (05 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 275 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 250/250/235 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 010/015-044/074-032/052
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 75% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/05/14 | X2.7 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/05/19 | M3.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/05/17 | Kp6+ (G2) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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