Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1633Z from Region 3873 (S08W36). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31
Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 29/0119Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
29/1812Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 240 pfu at 28/2235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 190 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet levels on day
two (31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Nov).
Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Oct), are
expected to cross threshold on day two (31 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 266 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 265/270/270 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 009/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/23 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 144.7 -21.7 |
| Last 30 days | 158.6 +10.8 |