Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 September 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Sep 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Sep 2024	162	007
06 Sep 2024	162	013
07 Sep 2024	162	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at high levels during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and M-class flares. The strongest flare was an M2.8 flare from NOAA active region 3807 and peaked at 08:56 UTC on Sep 5. Other M-class flares were observed to be produced by NOAA AR 3806, AR 3807, and AR 3811, which are also the most complex regions on the disk (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours, possibly with few M-class flares and a chance for isolated X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed corornal mass ejction (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hours.

Coronal holes

A small negative polarity coronal hole (CH), spanning 30-50 S, has crossed the central meridian on Sep 03, and the associated high- speed stream from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Sep 1-3. Another small positive polarity CH, spanning 25 - 35 N, has started to cross the central meridian on Sep 02. The high-speed stream from this CH is expected to enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Sep 2-3.

Solar wind

Earth has been experiencing enhanced solar wind conditions since September 4 at approximately 09:35 UTC, when a solar wind shock occurred. Since then, the interplanetary magnetic field has returned to values below 10 nT, the southward component (Bz) reaching up to -9 nT. The solar wind speed has remained between 370 km/s and 490 km/s. These enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next few days due to the effects of the solar wind shock, potentially followed by further intensification from the September 3 coronal mass ejection.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally active (NOAA Kp and K-Dourbes 4) following the solar wind shock observed on Sep 4, at 09:35 UTC. Quiet to unsettled condition are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is still enhanced and remains below the 10 pfu threshold level. The proton flux is expected to remain slightly elevated remaining below the threshold level in the coming hours. Still, there is a possibility to exceed the threshold level if there are any further high energy flares and eruptions.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 183, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	274
10cm solar flux	262
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	174 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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