Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 August 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Aug 31 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Aug 2024	217	026
01 Sep 2024	219	017
02 Sep 2024	221	012

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with several C-class flares and four M-class flares detected. The largest flare was an M3.8, peaking at 12:20 UTC on August 30, associated with NOAA AR 3806 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently nine numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3806, which has grown in size, also produced an M1.1 flare, peaking at 00:49 UTC on August 31, and an M1.2 flare, peaking at 02:38 UTC on August 31. Another M1.2 flare, peaking at 08:59 UTC on August 31, originated from an active region behind the east limb (S18E87) that is currently rotating onto the visible side of the disk. Low-level flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3807 (beta-gamma). NOAA AR 3798 and 3800, which are expected to rotate over the west limb in the next few hours, remained quiet. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible, and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing ICME and HSS influence. The total interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged between 9 and 14 nT. The solar wind speed varied between 350 km/s to around 430 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) reached a minimum of -12 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be slightly elevated in the next days with a chance for a weak enhancement on August 31 - September 1 due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on August 27.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels globally (NOAA Kp = 5-) between 21:00 and 00:00 UTC on August 30 and between 06:00 and 09:00 UTC on August 31, due to a prolonged period of negative Bz. Locally, only active conditions were observed over Belgium (K-Bel = 4). For the next 24 hours, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with a chance of isolated active or minor storm periods due to the ongoing mild CME and HSS influences and the possible arrival of another HSS.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 178, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	146
10cm solar flux	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	030
Estimated Ap	027
Estimated international sunspot number	155 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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