Issued: 2024 Sep 27 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
27 Sep 2024 | 181 | 007 |
28 Sep 2024 | 183 | 007 |
29 Sep 2024 | 185 | 016 |
Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.4 one from NOAA AR 3839, peaking at 23:12 UTC on 26 September. This AR is rotating into view over the east limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees erupted on 26 September, first seen by LASCO C2 at 09:12 UTC. This event is backsided and will not arrive to the Earth.
A small negative polarity coronal hole crossed central meridian on 26 September, a HSS may be expected at the Earth on 29 September.
The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds around 360 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field of about 5 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 48 hours.
The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet both locally and globally (K_Bel and Kp from 1 to 3). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.
Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 went slightly above the 1000 pfu threshold on 25 September, while it remained below it in GOES 16. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, and is expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 162, based on 15 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 184 |
10cm solar flux | 181 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 011 |
AK Wingst | 015 |
Estimated Ap | 014 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 144 - Based on 15 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26 | 2258 | 2312 | 2320 | ---- | M1.4 | --/3839 | |||
27 | 0743 | 0800 | 0815 | S15E83 | M0.9 | SF | 26/3839 | III/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
All times in UTC
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