Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Sep 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
27 Sep 2024181007
28 Sep 2024183007
29 Sep 2024185016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.4 one from NOAA AR 3839, peaking at 23:12 UTC on 26 September. This AR is rotating into view over the east limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours. A partial halo CME with angular width around 150 degrees erupted on 26 September, first seen by LASCO C2 at 09:12 UTC. This event is backsided and will not arrive to the Earth.

Coronal holes

A small negative polarity coronal hole crossed central meridian on 26 September, a HSS may be expected at the Earth on 29 September.

Solar wind

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds around 360 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field of about 5 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet both locally and globally (K_Bel and Kp from 1 to 3). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 went slightly above the 1000 pfu threshold on 25 September, while it remained below it in GOES 16. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 162, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania184
10cm solar flux181
AK Chambon La Forêt011
AK Wingst015
Estimated Ap014
Estimated international sunspot number144 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
26225823122320----M1.4--/3839
27074308000815S15E83M0.9SF26/3839III/1

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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