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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/2312Z from Region 3839 (S14E73). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 27/0014Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0838Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 507 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Sep 186
  Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 185/185/185
  90 Day Mean        27 Sep 214

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Sep  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  006/005-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%40%25%

All times in UTC

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