Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/1833Z from Region 3854 (S05W33). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and likely
to be moderate on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 15/0310Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 465 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (18
Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 172 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 017/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 017/025-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/09 | X1.4 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/15 | M2.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| October 2024 | 156.3 +14.9 |
| Last 30 days | 148.8 -15.7 |