Viewing archive of Monday, 14 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
14/0017Z from Region 3848 (N15W90). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Oct,
16 Oct) and likely to be moderate on day three (17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 14/0000Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
14/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 637 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 182 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 011/012-017/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |