Viewing archive of Monday, 14 October 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Oct 14 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Oct 2024	193	008
15 Oct 2024	193	007
16 Oct 2024	190	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M3.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2285) peaking on October 14 at 00:17 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 217 (NOAA Active Regions 3784, 3814, 3848). A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The most complex regions are SIDC Sunspot groups 217, 281 and 283 (NOAA AR 3848, 3852 and 3854) all magnetic type beta-gamma. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Coronal holes

A positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole started to cross the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth/enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Oktober 17.

Solar wind

The solar wind speed values continued to decreased from around 500 km/s to 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 5 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -2 nT. No enhancement of the sw speed and magnetic field is expected in the next 24h.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-4) over the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and, even if a slight increase may be observed, it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 138, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	139 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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