Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 October 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Oct 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2024	214	011
14 Oct 2024	212	010
15 Oct 2024	210	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at low levels, with multiple C-class flares. The strongest flares were two C5.7 flares. The first one (SIDC Flare 2281), peaking at 20:05 UTC on October 12, was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 279 (NOAA AR 3850, magnetic type alpha). The second (SIDC Flare 2283), peaking at 06:57 UTC on October 13, was produced by SIDC DG 217 (NOAA AR 3848, magnetic type beta-gamma). There are currently five numbered active regions on the solar disk, with SIDC SG 281 (NOAA AR 3852, magnetic type beta- delta) being the most complex one. SIDC SG 282 (NOAA AR 3853) has decayed into plage. A new, currently unnumbered active region has emerged in the northwest quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a small chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 data, lifting off the west limb around 11:30 UTC on October 12. It is probably associated with flaring activity near or beyond the west limb. The CME is mostly propagating to the southwest. It is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. A partial halo CME was detected in LASCO/C2 and LASCO/C3 data at 01:21 UTC on October 13. It is probably associated with eruptive activity beyond the west limb. The CME is mostly propagating to the west, and it is not expected to have an Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Solar wind

The solar wind conditions are returning to the slow solar wind regime. Speed values have decreased from around 620 km/s to 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were mostly close to 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -3 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Mostly slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with enhancements possible in case of the arrival of a mild, high-speed stream from the southern, positive polarity coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on October 10.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally over the last 24 hours have decreased from unsettled (NOAA Kp 4) to quiet (NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions locally were initially at minor storm levels (K BEL 5), later decreasing to active and unsettled levels (K BEL 4 to 3) and are currently at quiet levels (K BEL 2). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has decreased below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours, pending further eruptive activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was enhanced during the last 24 hours, approaching the threshold but remaining below it. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 141, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	214
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	131 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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