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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
13/0657Z from Region 3848 (N13W79). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 13/0330Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/0521Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 380 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 195 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 016/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 009/010-011/012-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/24 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 115.2 -37.3 |
| Last 30 days | 120.1 -38.2 |