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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 10/1206Z from Region 3889 (S10E28). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 10/0215Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/2315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 231
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 210/215/215
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 218

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  024/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  023/031
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  012/015-011/010-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%35%
Minor storm30%05%20%
Major-severe storm10%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm65%30%50%

All times in UTC

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