Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/1308Z from Region 3917 (S07E24). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09
Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 07/0313Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
07/0435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10
Dec), and quiet on day two (09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 183 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/008-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/18 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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